Cina... Cina... Lagi-lagi Cina.
Ini sorry ya, bukan maksud saya rasis. Cina emang ndak pernah lepas dari sejarah Indonesia, Asia, Bahkan dunia. Islam pun mengagumi Cina, bahkan untuk menimba ilmu diambil perumpamaan Cina. Di samping sejarah kapitan Cina -yang lebih baik saya no comment- saya diam-diam mengagumi China. Meskipun lebih banyak khawatirnya, karena ekonomi raksasa yang dibangun China, diprediksikan akan mencaplok kawasan asia tenggara, termasuk Indonesia.
Ada sebuah artikel dari Anthony Deutsch, sebenarnya dari sebuah kuliah umum dari Nouriel Roubini, pakar ekonomi dunia yang tersohor. Artikelnya menarik, karena Roubini menganggap Indonesia adalah kekayaan baru yang wajib di sorot.
Buat saya, Indonesia saat ini bagaikan gadis remaja yang masih perawan, diincar oleh penjahat nafsu syahwat. Oh, Come on, sudah saatnya Indonesia sadar!
Ah, saya ndak akan berpanjang lebar, saya mau bikin proposal thesis dulu.
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Roubini: Goodbye China, hello Indonesia
October 25, 2011 6:00 am by Anthony Deutsch
If economist Nouriel Roubini was a betting man, he’d be cashing out of China and doubling down on Indonesia.
On his first trip to south-east Asia’s
largest economy, Roubini argued the case for countries with growth
models like Indonesia, where nearly two-thirds of GDP is domestic
consumption, rather than China, at roughly one third and, as he has
previously warned , “could be headed toward a hard landing.”
Indonesia has low inflation, low debt (at
about 26 per cent of GDP), young demographics and accelerating growth.
China he said, is slowing and has a debt-to-GDP ratio of closer to 80
per cent (though China’s official figure is just 18 per cent).
“Some countries in the region are better positioned for long-term,
even growth – countries like Indonesia or India, with 50 – 60 per cent
of GDP coming from domestic consumption,” he said.
Indonesia learned a hard lesson during
the 1997-1998 financial crisis, when GDP shrank 13 per cent in a year,
capital flooded out and the rupiah collapsed. Now, along with most of
its south-east Asian neighbours, it has built up “massive reserves” and
is in healthy shape.
On the other hand, ”China needs to move
away from the growth model and find balanced growth of the other
emerging markets, like Indonesia, India and Brazil,” he said.
“It is the time of rising power of the
emerging markets and emerging Asia is the fastest growing region in the
world. Indonesia is a country that can be very important in the global
economy. By the end of the decade it will be the 10th largest economy
and by 2030, it could be the 6th.”
Possible become a misery?
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